Fantasy Nuthouse

SPORTS GUT–Heeeello Mr. Preseason!

John Willette — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 19:50:12 +0000

When it comes to evaluating fantasy football worthy talent, there’s nothing more useless than the preseason. After all, players are playing against the second and third string defenses of teams that are more concerned about avoiding injuries than the score. So naturally, I am seldom wowed when an obscure player buried deep on the depth chart has an offensive performance worthy of an ESPN replay. In Week 1 of the 2010 NFL Preseason, one player had such a performance…on Monday Night Football no less.

The Giants’ Victor Cruz, an undrafted rookie out of UMass, had the night of his life against the Jets as he christened New York’s new stadium with 6 receptions for 145 yards and three touchdowns. What makes Cruz’s performance notable is that he was the first player since 1998 to score three touchdowns in a preseason game. Cruz is in good company. Terrell Owens was the last player to accomplish that feat and he turned out to be a Pro Bowl receiver.

Unfortunately, it may never get better than this for Cruz unless the Giants receiving corps becomes decimated by injuries. Entering the 2010 season, Cruz is no better than the No. 5 receiver on a team where the players ahead of him are still within the first five years of their careers. In fact, Cruz’s performance was so impressive, that his chances of seeing any roster other than the Giants are minute barring a trade, and NFL teams rarely trade rookies with as much potential as Cruz displayed. Cruz to me looks like a real go-getter and could easily work his way past No. 4 receiver Sinorice Moss. If Cruz is as polished and NFL ready as he appeared on Monday night, I believe that by the end of the season, Cruz could very well unseat Mario Manningham/Ramses Barden for the No. 3 job. For the meantime, Cruz’s role will likely be on special teams as a kick or punt returner.

Cruz looks to be a decent end of draft selection in dynasty leagues, as long as you are willing to wait. There’s a chance that he’ll provide a more immediate impact in leagues that count return yardage, provided that he earns one of the Giants punt or kick return jobs. Cruz is merely a wait and see candidate in redraft leagues.

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FFWebMASTERS ANNUAL DRAFT–Rounds 14-18 Analysis

John Willette — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 12:49:45 +0000

This is the final installment of the Fantasy Football WebMasters annual draft. The FFWebMASTERS league is a 14-team league comprised of the top fantasy football experts in the business today.

The Fantasy Football WebMasters league was designed to help you draft in your own leagues. From our draft you’ll learn which rounds the top fantasy players will be taken, which players you can draft in the later rounds and which unknown players will be poised for a breakout season. The following is a breakdown of this year’s draft from my point of view!

2010 Draft Order
1. Fantasyfootball.com
2. Fantasy Strategies
3. Inside the Stats
4. RotoTimes
5. Fanball
6. Rotoworld
7. The Huddle
8. Fantasy Guru
9. Fantasy Nuthouse
10. Grogan’s Fantasy Football
11. Fantasy Football Mastermind
12. Fantasy Tailgate
13. Fantasy Football Pro Forecast Magazine
14. Sports Grumblings

The draft utilizes a serpentine draft order. We start 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1K-1DEF. The league utilizes basic scoring with 1 point for every 10 yards rush/rec, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 4 pts for a TD pass and 6 points for all other TDs. Team defense scores 1 point per sack-Interception-Fumble recovery, 6 points for TDs including special team TDs only.12, 2010. The draft commenced on July Follow our season at the FFWebMASTERS league site!

ROUND 14
183. Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
184. Kevin Faulk, RB, New England Patriots
185. Laurent Robinson, WR, St. Louis Rams
186. Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions
187. Minnesota Vikings Defense
188. Green Bay Packers Defense
189. Ben Watson, TE, Cleveland Browns
190. Davone Bess, WR, Miami Dolphins
191. Tony Scheffler, TE, Detroit Lions
192. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
193. San Francisco 49ers
194. Josh Cribbs, WR, Cleveland Browns
195. Anthony Fasano, TE, Miami Dolphins
196. Mike Williams, WR, Seattle Seahawks

ANALYSIS: Three teams waited until the fourteenth round to select their second tight end. I can’t stress enough the importance of a good tight end in a touchdown-heavy scoring league. Considering that 95% of the tight ends won’t gain enough receiving yards to qualify for more than 4 points a week (1 point per 10 yards receiving), having a tight end that can score touchdowns is fantasy gold. Mike Williams may prove to be a steal at this point in the draft. Williams has impressed the Seahawk coaches thus far in training camp and there’s even talk about him being utilized in the redzone. If rookie Jonathan Dwyer can steal the short yardage/redzone carries away from starter Rashard Mendenhall he could have score a bunch of touchdowns.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: I thought I would get a jump on the Defensive team run with my selection of the Green Bay Packers. The Packers defense, which was the third best defense in this league a year ago, should only get better especially with their explosive offense.

ROUND 15
197. San Diego Chargers
198. Pittsburgh Steelers
199. Brandon Tate, WR, New England Patriots
200. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland Raiders
201. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
202. Early Doucet, WR, Arizona Cardinals
203.Dallas Cowboys Defense
204. Brandon LaFell, WR, Carolina Panthers
205. Nate Kaeding, K, San Diego Chargers
206. Mike Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
207. Dexter McCluster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
208. Brian Westbrook, RB, FA
209. New Orleans Saints Defense
210. Sammy Morris, RB, New England Patriots

ANALYSIS: The Team Defense run was in full swing heading into Round 15. Darrius Heyward-Bey could be a starter this season but the big question is will he be productive? Fantasy Tailgate took a chance on running back Brian Westbrook but as of August 12, 2010 he was still a free agent. Rookie Brandon LaFell could be the best player taken in this round as he is taking the starting reps across from Steve Smith in training camp.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: I jumped on the opportunity to draft Nate Kaeding, the top kicker in this league from 2009. The absence of Vincent Jackson should only enhance Kaeding’s utilization near the endzone. Vincent Jackson scored nine touchdowns last season. Expect most of those to become field goals this season.

ROUND 16
211. Stephen Gostkowski, K, New England Patriots
212. Garrett Hartley, K, New Orleans Saints
213. Bo Scaife, TE, Tennessee Titans
214. David Akers, K, Philadelphia Eagles
215. Zach Miller, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
216. Ryan Longwell, K, Minnesota Vikings
217. Correll Buckhalter, RB, Denver Broncos
218. Cincinnati Bengals Defense
219. New York Giants Defense
220. Rob Bironas, K, Tennessee Titans
221. Lawrence Tynes, K, New York Giants
222. Michael Jenkins, WR, Atlanta Falcons
223. Nick Folk, K, New York Jets
224. Matt Moore, QB, Carolina Panthers

ANALYSIS: This is your typical “Oh, crap! I still need a defense/kicker” round. I can’t explain the Zach Miller of the Jaguars pick by Grogan’s. Marcedes Lewis is the only tight end to have in Jacksonville and he’s hardly playable in deep leagues. Inside the Stats must see something in Michael Jenkins that everyone else doesn’t. Jenkins is primarily used for blocking and hasn’t been fantasy relevant since he entered the league. I like Fantasyfootball.com’s pick of Matt Moore. Not only do they get their BYE week quarterback but they also get a quarterback that just might be better than some of the quarterbacks taken before him.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: Because of the way that the scoring is setup in this league, the kicker position is one of the few positions where double digit scoring each week is typical, especially if you have a good kicker on a great offense. Hence, my Ryan Longwell pick.

ROUND 17
225. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tennessee Titans
226. Indianapolis Colts Defense
227. Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco 49ers
228. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
229. Earl Bennett, WR, Chicago Bears
230. Miami Dolphins Defense
231. Neil Rackers, K, Houston Texans
232. Chicago Bears Defense
233. Legedu Naanee, WR, San Diego Chargers
234. Matt Prater, K, Denver Broncos
235. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams
236. New England Patriots Defense
237. Mewelde Moore, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
238. Arizona Cardinals Defense

ANALYSIS: Five defenses go off the board this round and a couple of backup running backs. The picks of Josh Morgan and Legedu Naanee by Inside the Stats and Fantasy Nuthouse respectively, are intriguing. Morgan looks to be the starter across from Michael Crabtree but is overshadowed by Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore. He was in the same situation last season and was underutilized, which likely won’t change this season. Naanee is a complete wildcard. With Vincent Jackson suspended for three games and threatening to holdout for several more, Naanee becomes the starter across from Malcom Floyd. I don’t think the Chargers will change their game plan much with or without Jackson in the lineup. San Diego is still going to pass plenty, which bodes well for the Chargers new receivers.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: At this point in the draft, I was looking for any player that was a starter or had the chance to start. As potent as the Charger’s offense was in 2009, I was mildly shocked that Legedu Naanee was still available. Granted, he doesn’t have much of a resume but then again he has never had the opportunity. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Legedu lead the Chargers in receiving while he is in the lineup. I was also targeting Devery Henderson here but it wasn’t clear whether he would be the starter and whether he would be recovered from his sports hernia by Week 1.

ROUND 18
239. Devery Henderson, WR, New Orleans Saints
240. Malcom Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins
241. Robbie Gould, K, Chicago Bears
242. Sammie Stroughter, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
243. Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit Lions
244. Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills
245. Jay Feely, K, Arizona Cardinals
246. Dan Carpenter, K, Miami Dolphins
247. David Buehler, K, Dallas Cowboys
248. Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans Saints
249. Shawn Nelson, TE, Buffalo Bills
250. Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots
251. Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins
252. Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland Raiders

ANALYSIS: The last round of any draft is usually a throw away round since most of the picks won’t make a fantasy impact. Five of the fourteen picks selected were kickers which were obvious need picks. The potential starters in this round, aside from the kickers, look to be Devery Henderson and Steve Johnson. Out of the two, Johnson surprisingly looks to have more fantasy potential as the Bills lone No. 2 receiver. Henderson on the other hand is not only competing with Robert Meachem for the same position but he must fully recover from a sports hernia. Fred Davis was a good last round pick, especially if starter Chris Cooley misses any games due to injury.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: I was torn between Fred Davis and Steve Johnson with my last pick.
In 2009, Fred Davis started for the injured Chris Cooley and had a banner season. Unfortunately, Cooley appears to be healthy again which will limit Davis’ fantasy potential. Davis’ upside however is that Davis may have earned more playing time based on his performance last season and of course, another Cooley injury. Johnson on the other hand appears entrenched as the Bills No. 2 receiver and could serve as a BYE week or injury replacement player on my roster. The fact that I already had two elite tight ends was a decisive factor in drafting Johnson. That and the fact that this was a redraft league and not a keeper league.

TEAM FANTASY NUTHOUSE

QB–Matt Schaub, Houston, Kyle Orton, Denver

RB–Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh, Clinton Portis, Washington, Montario Hardesty Cleveland

WR–Austin Miles, Dallas, Michael Crabtree, San Francisco, Mike Williams, Tampa Bay, Devin Aromashodu, Chicago, Julian Edelman, New England, Legedu Naanee, San Diego, Arrelious Benn, Tampa Bay, Steve Johnson, Buffalo

TE–Brent Celek, Philadelphia, Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota

K–Nate Kaeding, San Diego, Ryan Longwell, Minnesota

DEF–Green Bay Packers

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FFWebMASTERS ANNUAL DRAFT–Rounds 8-13

John Willette — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 02:39:47 +0000

This is the eighth installment of the Fantasy Football WebMasters annual draft. The FFWebMASTERS league is a 14-team league comprised of the top fantasy football experts in the business today.

ROUND 8
99. Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans
100. Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders
101. Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins
102. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
103. Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots
104. Devin Aromashodu, WR, Chicago Bears
105. Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots
106. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns
107. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers
108. Braylon Edwards, WR, New York Jets
109. Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks
110. Jabar Gaffney, WR, Denver Broncos
111. Devin Thomas, WR, Washington Redskins
112. Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

ANALYSIS: Sports Grumblings takes a huge risk by selecting Owen Daniels as their No. 1 tight end. At this writing, Daniels will not be ready to play on opening day. It’s funny how far the Redskins’ offense can drop a quarterback’s draft stock. Last year in this league, Donovan McNabb was a fifth round pick. The receiver position becomes a popular position in this round. The Huddle takes a gamble on Wes Welker, who’s still recovering from an ACL tear. However, recent news out of Patriots camp has Welker participating in 11-on-11 drills and taking hits. He could be a coup if he remains healthy. Grogan’s takes a gamble on Vincent Jackson who will miss the first three games of the season due to a league mandated suspension and possibly more games due to a holdout over a contract dispute. Last year in this league both Welker and Jackson were 4th round picks.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: With Vincent Jackson and Wes Welker still available I thought long and hard about drafting one of them. Receivers are a premium in this league and I knew I needed one that I could slip into my lineup in Week 1. With no guarantees that either of them would be ready I opted not to take the risk. Looking back, if I could pick all over again I would’ve picked Jabar Gaffney over Devin Aromashodu. Don’t get me wrong, I think Aromashodu is a good pick in this round especially with Mike Martz now in Chicago but what I don’t like is the fact that Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are ahead of him on the depth chart. I thought for sure Gaffney was going to fall to me in the next round but I guessed wrong on this one. Gaffney is going to be a fantasy stud this season. I can feel it.

ROUND 9
113. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
114. Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams
115. Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints
116. Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston Texans
117. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
118. Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans
119. Chris Cooley, TE, Washington Redskins
120. Chester Taylor, RB, Chicago Bears
121. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
122. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets
123. Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens
124. Roy Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys
125. Chaz Schilens, WR, Oakland Raiders
126. Santonio Holmes, New York Jets

ANALYSIS: Sports Grumblings got themselves an excellent player in this round if they can weather Santonio Holmes’ four game suspension. Tight end Chris Cooley looks to be healthy and should have been selected a couple rounds higher. Fantasyfootball.com selects Demaryius Thomas, the second rookie receiver taken in the draft. No one else in this round really stands out.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: My pick of Julian Edelman was one of those “Screw You” picks. With Edelman’s excellent play in the playoffs last season and starter Wes Welker recovering from ACL surgery I felt he was the best receiver available. I will have screwed myself with this pick however, if Wes Welker IS healthy and plays.

ROUND 10
127. Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona Cardinals
128. Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
129. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
130. Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts
131. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills
132. Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Minnesota Vikings
133. John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks
134. Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins
135. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
136. New York Jets Defense
137. Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego Chargers
138. Baltimore Ravens Defense
139. David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
140. Leon Washington, RB, Seattle Seahawks

ANALYSIS: Fantasy Tailgate probably got the STEAL of the draft with their selection of running back Arian Foster. Foster was named the starter going into training camp and his draft stock has been rising ever since. You can bet that he’ll make Texans fans excited about NFL Betting this season. The first two defenses come off the board in this round with the Jets going first followed by the Ravens. In this league, the defensive position does not score a lot of points so waiting on a defense won’t kill your team. Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe amazingly falls to the tenth round after scoring 11 touchdowns in 2009.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: Visanthe Shiancoe scored the second most touchdowns for a tight end in the NFL last season with eleven. He was the sixth best tight end in this league in 2009. If Brett Favre returns in 2010 I’ll have potentially the best tight end tandem in the league in Shiancoe and Brent Celek. If Favre doesn’t return, I think Shiancoe’s value will remain relatively the same playing as Tarvaris Jackson’s safety valve. He may not score as many touchdowns without Favre but I think he’ll churn out more receiving yards.

ROUND 11
141. Golden Tate, WR, Seattle Seahawks
142. Mike Bell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
143. Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans
144. Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
145. Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets
146. Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets
147. Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
148. Bernard Berrian, WR, Minnesota Vikings
149. Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
150. Jason Campbell, QB, Oakland Raiders
151. Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions
152. Terrell Owens, WR, FA/Cincinnati Bengals
153. Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago Bears
154. Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona Cardinals

ANALYSIS: Golden Tate is the third rookie receiver taken in the draft despite the Tampa Bay Buccaneer rookie duo of Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn still available. Williams and Benn appear to have a quicker ascent to starting jobs this season than Tate. Four teams acquired their backup quarterbacks in this round with three other teams securing their second tight end. Nate Washington and Bernard Berrian are questionable picks here. Washington plays in a run-first offense and will be passed on the depth chart by Kenny Britt sooner than later. If last season was any indication (618-yards and 4 touchdowns) Berrian is no longer a fantasy asset. Fantasy Tailgate grabs Terrell Owens whom at the time was a free agent. With Owens’ signing with the Bengals he should out-play his draft position.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: The real debate for me was whether to select Arrelious Benn or teammate Mike Williams. I decided that since Benn was the higher draft pick by the Buccaneers, he likely would’ve been drafted before my next pick. At the time of the draft, Benn was more highly touted than Williams and neither had been guaranteed playing time much less a starting job.

ROUND 12
155. Larry Johnson, RB, Washington Redskins
156. Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans
157. Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
158. Philadelphia Eagles Defense
159. Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings
160. Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
161. Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
162. Fred Taylor, RB, New England Patriots
163. Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
164. James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers
165. Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts
166. Mason Crosby, K, Green Bay Packers
167. Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks
168. Kevin Boss, TE, New York Giants

ANALYSIS: Larry Johnson, Toby Gerhart, Fred Taylor, Bernard Scott and Julius Jones were all “Screw You” picks as none of the teams have the starter on their roster. It’s interesting to note that Grogan’s passed up Bernard Scott to select Toby Gerhart, even though they have the brittle Cedric Benson on their roster. One would think that these teams would have targeted their own backups in the draft instead of everybody else’s. The best pick in this round was quarterback Matt Cassel, who in his second year with the Chiefs should be much improved. I’m not high on Vince Young in this touchdown-heavy league because he’ll lose most of the touchdown opportunities to running back Chris Johnson. Kevin Walter was a wasted pick by Fantasy Football Pro Forecast Magazine. The Texans rarely involve their receivers other than Andre Johnson in their offensive game plan. Fantasy Nuthouse selects the fifth rookie receiver in Mike Williams, who appears to have won a starting job in Tampa Bay. James Jones and Austin Collie would have been great picks in a dynasty league. In a redraft league such as this, Jones is still the No. 3 receiver with Donald Driver unwilling to hang up his cleats and Collie has an uphill battle for playing time in Indianapolis. Inside the Stats selects Mason Crosby, the first kicker in the draft. As competitive as this league is, having a kicker that will put up points every week could be the difference between winning and losing.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: In Round 11, I decided that I would monopolize the Buccaneers receiving position by drafting rookie Arrelious Benn and then hoping that fellow rookie Mike Williams would still be available in Round 12. My strategy worked as Williams was available. Latest word out of Tampa Bay is that Mike Williams will open the season as one of the starters. Benn’s role on the team has yet to be determined.

ROUND 13
169. Matt Hasslebeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks
170. Anthony Gonzalez, QR, Indianapolis Colts
171. Derrick Ward, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
172. Lynell Hamilton, RB, New Orleans Saints
173. Glen Coffee, RB, San Francisco 49ers
174. Tashard Choice, RB, Dallas Cowboys
175. Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants
176. Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons
177. Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
178. Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland Raiders
179. Jeremy Shockey, TE, New Orleans Saints
180. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
181. Javon Ringer, RB, Tennessee Titans
182. Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore Ravens

ANALYSIS: These are your typical late round picks that include a selection of backup running backs and receivers that may or may not see playing time this season. Believe it or not, Jeremy Shockey’s draft stock has sunk even lower since this draft took place due to his problematic knee.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: I may have waited a round or two too long to select my second quarterback. I thought about Matt Hasselbeck or Josh Freeman here but Orton’s experience and health won out. I also thought about Matt Moore and probably even should have drafted him but with this draft so soon after the NFL draft I wasn’t sure whether Moore or rookie Jimmy Clausen would be quarterbacking the Panthers.

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FFWebMASTERS ANNUAL DRAFT–Round 7 Analysis

John Willette — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 03:28:30 +0000

This is the seventh installment of the Fantasy Football WebMasters annual draft. The FFWebMASTERS league is a 14-team league comprised of the top fantasy football experts in the business today.

The draft utilizes a serpentine draft order. We start 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1K-1DEF. The league utilizes basic scoring with 1 point for every 10 yards rush/rec, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 4 pts for a TD pass and 6 points for all other TDs. Team defense scores 1 point per sack-Interception-Fumble recovery, 6 points for TDs including special team TDs only. Follow our season at the FFWebMASTERS league site!

ROUND 7
85. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans
86. Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills
87. Kellen Winslow, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
88. Antonio Bryant, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
89. C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills
90. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
91. Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
92. Thomas Jones, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
93. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins
94. Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills
95. Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore Ravens
96. Jerome Harrison, CLE, RB
97. Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos
98. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets

ANALYSIS: With the talent pool shrinking a few teams managed to squeeze out a couple more starting running backs. Fred Jackson, Carnell Williams and Clinton Portis were all good picks this late in the draft. From this point on, the running backs being selected are what I like to call “Screw You” picks. These are picks where owners in the league select everybody else’s backups in hope that the starter becomes injured. Tight end Kellen Winslow, who’s always an injury risk, may have gone earlier than he should have with Oakland’s Zach Miller, Washington’s Chris Cooley and the Vikings’ Visanthe Shiancoe still available. Receiver Antonio Bryant will be one of those picks that RotoTimes.com will wish they hadn’t made. Had they had the foresight, this would have been a good round to select Terrell Owens, who signed with the Bengals after our draft was completed. Eddie Royal was the first Broncos receiver selected in this draft. I personally think that Jabar Gaffney will be the receiver to own in Denver in 2010 and merits being drafted no later than the 6th round. Dez Bryant becomes the first rookie receiver taken in the draft by Rotoworld, and you can bet that he’ll make Cowboys fans excited about NFL Betting this season.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: I was looking for a third running back to cover BYE weeks. Fortunately, news broke out of Washington that Mike Shanahan named Clinton Portis his starter just before my pick. Knowing that Portis wouldn’t be around if I passed him up I pulled the trigger. I was also targeting Jerome Harrison to pair up with Montario Hardesty or the Seahawks’ Justin Forsett.

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SPORTS GUT–2010 NFL National TV Preseason Game Schedule and What to Watch

John Willette — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 02:23:04 +0000

Nothing breaks the monotony of summer like the dawning of the NFL preseason. Kicking off the preseason of course is the annual Hall of Fame game, which takes place on August 8 in Canton, Ohio. From there the action doesn’t stop as our lonely August is filled with preseason action galore. To help prepare you for the upcoming preseason, I’ve previewed each National TV game and given you insights on who and what to watch.

The national TV schedule, followed by the entire list (all times EDT): (all national TV games at 8 p.m. EDT)

Sunday, Aug. 8: Cincinnati vs. Dallas (Hall of Fame Game), NBC-Thursday—This game got a lot more exciting with the Bengals’ signing ex-Cowboy Terrell Owens. Don’t expect Owens to play much though. I’m looking forward to seeing rookie tight end Jermaine Gresham play and how the Bengals will utilize him. Dez Bryant is out with a high ankle sprain but we will get to watch the Cowboys’ third running back Tashard Choice, who could become the starter as soon as 2011.

Aug. 12: Carolina at Baltimore, ESPN-Thursday—This game will introduce Raven fans to their new offensive weapon, Anquan Boldin and give us a preview of Carolina’s future starting quarterback and wide receiver in rookies Jimmy Clausen and Brandon LaFell. The Ravens’ rookie tight end duo of Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will also be on display.

Aug. 16: N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets, ESPN-Monday—In the spirit of college football, we have our first big rivalry of the season. Giants receivers Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks will be playing their hearts out in a heated competition for the No. 2 receiving job. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw should put on a show but don’t expect him to play long. The Jets will likely play Santonio Holmes extensively since he’ll miss the first four games of the regular season due to suspension. Starting running back Shonn Greene won’t play long but his backups LaDainian Tomlinson and rookie Joe McKnight will. It will be interesting to see how much talent Tomlinson has left and whether or not McKnight can play a series without tossing his cookies.

Aug. 19: New England at Atlanta, Fox-Thursday—The Falcons virtually bring nothing to the table for fantasy owners in this game. My interest will soley be on the Patriots where we might catch a glimpse of Bill Belichick’s preferred running back order. I’m also interested in seeing whether or not receivers Brandon Tate or rookie Taylor Price has what it takes to beat out starter Torry Holt and whether rookie linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jermaine Cunningham lineup as starters.

Aug. 20: Philadelphia at Cincinnati, Fox-Friday—The NFL must really love the Bengals with another nationally televised game. Bernard Scott is expected to receive the majority of carries for Cincinnati. I’m thinking receiver Terrell Owens will receive a little more time on the field than in the first preseason game. I’ll be watching tight end Jermaine Gresham to see how he’s progressed. Kevin Kolb will be the key player to watch to see how he handles the rigors of being the starting quarterback. Will he throw long or will he dink and dunk to his tight ends? The Eagles will be breaking in a new safety in rookie Nate Allen. Rookie running back Charles Scott should see extensive action and could receive substantial playing time when Mike Bell injures himself this season.

Aug. 22: Minnesota at San Francisco, NBC-Sunday—Don’t expect Michael Crabtree to play very much if at all. He didn’t need the preseason last year so why would he need it this year? The 49er’s backup running back spot is up for grabs between incumbent Glenn Coffee and rookie Anthony Dixon. Who ever wins this competition could have significant fantasy value this season. If Brett Favre decides to return none of the regular starters will be playing more than a series. If Tarvaris Jackson is the starting quarterback I would expect the Vikings to play him as much as possible in the preseason. I would be shocked if receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin play at all regardless of who’s quarterbacking.

Aug. 23: Arizona at Tennessee, ESPN-Monday—The Cardinals are going to put their fate in Matt Leinart’s hands this season and to catch him up to speed, he will play more in the preseason than most of the starting quarterbacks in the league. Arizona won’t risk star receiver Larry Fitzgerald’s health by playing him in a meaningless preseason game. I suspect that receivers Steve Breaston and Duce Early will be the Cards preseason starters. Rookie receiver Andre Roberts could make his bid for playing time with an excellent preseason. You can bet that a game like this will get people excited about NFL Betting this season.

Aug. 26: Indianapolis at Green Bay, ESPN-Thursday—The real interest in this game will come from the Colts receiving corps where Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez are all fighting for the starting job across from Reggie Wayne. We’ll also see if place kicker Adam Vinatieri is healthy enough to hold off rookie Brett Swenson. The Packer’s receiving corps may also see some changes. With Donald Driver on the downside of his career and recovering from injury, James Jones can propel himself into the starting lineup opposite Greg Jennings. The Packers will also want to see what they have in rookie running back James Starks who could become the heir apparent to starter Ryan Grant. Expect to see another rookie, Morgan Burnett, solidify himself as the Packers’ new starting strong safety.

Aug. 27: San Diego at New Orleans, CBS-Friday—Most of the starters will see substantial playing time including rookie running back Ryan Matthews and new starting receivers Malcom Floyd and Legedu Nananee. I don’t suspect that we’ll see much of tight end Antonio Gates though. The Saints are going to limit running back Pierre Thomas’ playing time in this one considering his injury history. Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will be the main receivers on the field. I’m looking forward to seeing rookie tight end Jimmy Graham play. Graham has drawn comparisons to Antonio Gates and with Jeremy Shockey nursing injuries on a daily basis he could assume the starting role sooner than later.

Aug. 28: Dallas at Houston, CBS-Saturday—According to the Cowboys, rookie receiver Dez Bryant should be back from his high ankle sprain but I have my doubts. If he is healthy he’ll likely play at least the first quarter just to get the cobwebs worked out before the season opener. The Texans should have declared their starting running back by now. All indications point to Arian Foster being the primary back but they also have rookie Ben Tate, who’s recovering from a hamstring injury and former starter Steve Slaton. Another question for the Texans is whether or not tight end Owen Daniels is healthy enough to play. If not I hope they give their rookie tight end Garrett Graham a long look-see.

Aug. 29: Pittsburgh at Denver, Fox –Sunday—Quarterback Byron Leftwich will likely see the majority of snaps at quarterback with starter Ben Roethlisberger facing a four game suspension. I don’t expect to see Hines Ward on the field much but I’m guessing that the Steelers will make Mike Wallace, Antwaan Randle El and rookie Emmanuel Sanders work up a sweat. Another position to watch will be at running back. Will the Steelers hand over the short yardage redzone work to Rashard Mendenhall or will they give it to rookie Jonathan Dwyer? Denver might be a little more exciting to watch with Jabar Gaffney (was 2009 a fluke?), Eddie Royal and rookie Demaryius Thomas taking the field. Thomas will be of great interest in the preseason games as he was drafted to replace the departed Brandon Marshall. Can he live up to the hype? I’m also curious as to what the pecking order is in their running back corps. As a full time starter, I don’t believe that second year player Knowshon Moreno can handle the load without injury. Finally, despite the draft hoopla, Tim Tebow won’t see as much time in this game as he will in weeks 2 and 4 of the preseason. It will be interesting to see just how ready Tebow is as a quarterback to play in the NFL.

COMPLETE NFL PRESEASON SCHEDULE

HALL OF FAME WEEKEND
Sunday, Aug. 8
8:00: Cincinnati vs. Dallas at Canton, Ohio (NBC)

WEEK 1
Thursday, Aug. 12
7:30: New Orleans at New England
8:00: Carolina at Baltimore (ESPN)
9:00: Oakland at Dallas

Friday, Aug. 13
7:30: Buffalo at Washington (NFL Network)
7:30: Jacksonville at Philadelphia
8:00: Kansas City at Atlanta

Saturday, Aug. 14
7:00: Tampa Bay at Miami (NFL Network)
7:30: Detroit at Pittsburgh
8:00: Cleveland at Green Bay
8:00: Houston at Arizona
8:00: Minnesota at St. Louis
9:00: Chicago at San Diego
10:00: Tennessee at Seattle (NFL Network)

Sunday, Aug. 15
1:00: San Francisco at Indianapolis (NFL Network)
7:00: Denver at Cincinnati (NFL Network)

Monday, Aug. 16
8:00: N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets (ESPN)

WEEK 2
Thursday, Aug. 19
7:30: Indianapolis vs. Buffalo at Toronto
8:00: New England at Atlanta (Fox)

Friday, Aug. 20
8:00: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (Fox)

Saturday, Aug. 21
7:00: Baltimore at Washington
7:00: Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (NBC-13, NFL Network)
7:30: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
7:30: Miami at Jacksonville
7:30: St. Louis at Cleveland
8:00: Houston at New Orleans
8:00: N.Y. Jets at Carolina
8:30: Oakland at Chicago
9:00: Dallas at San Diego
9:00: Detroit at Denver
10:00: Green Bay at Seattle (NFL Network)

Sunday, Aug. 22
8:00: Minnesota at San Francisco (NBC)

Monday, Aug. 23
8:00: Arizona at Tennessee (ESPN)

WEEK 3
Thursday, Aug. 26
7:30: St. Louis at New England
8:00: Indianapolis at Green Bay (ESPN)

Friday, Aug. 27
7:00: Atlanta at Miami
7:00: Washington at N.Y. Jets
8:00: San Diego at New Orleans (CBS)
8:00: Philadelphia at Kansas City

Saturday, Aug. 28
5:00: Cleveland at Detroit (NFL Network)
6:30: Cincinnati at Buffalo
7:30: Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
7:30: N.Y. Giants at Baltimore (NBC-13)
8:00: Dallas at Houston (CBS)
8:00: Seattle at Minnesota
8:00: Tennessee at Carolina
8:30: Arizona at Chicago
9:00: San Francisco at Oakland

Sunday, Aug, 29
8:00: Pittsburgh at Denver (Fox)

WEEK 4
Thursday, Sept. 2
7:00: Buffalo at Detroit
7:00: Cincinnati at Indianapolis
7:00: New England at N.Y. Giants (NBC-13, NFL Network)
7:30: Atlanta at Jacksonville
7:30: Carolina at Pittsburgh
7:30: N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia
8:00: Baltimore at St. Louis
8:00: Chicago at Cleveland
8:00: Denver at Minnesota
8:00: Green Bay at Kansas City
8:00: Miami at Dallas
8:00: New Orleans at Tennessee
8:00: Tampa Bay at Houston
10:00: San Diego at San Francisco
10:00: Seattle at Oakland
10:00: Washington at Arizona (NFL Network)

Check out the 2010 NFL regular season schedule at NFL.com!

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IDP MEDICAL MAYHEM!

John Willette — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 06:06:41 +0000

The 2010 NFL offseason hasn’t been a happy one for IDP (Individual Defensive Players) league owners. With NFL Training Camps just a week old, defensive players left and right have been dropping like flies!

The impact of these injuries can prove disasterous in IDP leagues compared to non-IDP leagues that utilize a defensive unit. In non-IDP leagues an injury to a key defensive player may or may not affect the overall fantasy production of a fantasy defense. However, in IDP leagues where you must rely on the production of each individual defensive player, an injury can mean the difference between a championship contender and a proverbial league cellar dwellar. This is especially true if the injury occurs to a player that you burned a high draft pick on because unlike in non-IDP leagues, the talent pool isn’t as deep in IDP leagues.

To IDP leaguers who haven’t had their drafts yet, may the following list of key defensive injuries serve to inform you. For those of you who have drafted these players on this list…my condolences.

Elvis Dumervil, LB, Denver Broncos–As the NFL leader in sacks in 2009 with 17, his torn pectoral muscle will likely wipe out his season and the seasons of those IDP owners who drafted him to be their No. 1 linebacker. The Broncos defensive unit, which was considered as a sleeper going into the season, will be nothing more than waiver wire fodder without Dumervil’s ability to sack the quarterback.

Aaron Curry, LB, Seattle Seahawks–Curry missed several days of training camp after getting his bell rung on the first day of practice. This may be nothing at all but be forewarned, concussions have a tendency to reoccur and Curry could miss practices and/or games during the season.

Scott McKillop, LB, San Francisco 49ers–McKillop, who is lost for the season with a torn ACL and patella tendon, was a top linebacker pick in dynasty leagues in 2009. Going into 2010, McKillop was slated to backup starter Takeo Spikes, whom at his age probably wouldn’t have been counted on to remain healthy all season. With the 49ers drafting Navorro Bowman in the third round, McKillop isn’t worth keeping rostered.

Gerald Hayes, LB, Arizona Cardinals–Hayes had back surgery this offseason and his return before Week 1 is in doubt. The Cardinals already lost Karlos Dansby to the Miami Dolphins so his return is crucial for the Cardinals’ defensive success. Rookie Darryl Washington has a great opportunity to step up and make a name for himself in Hayes’ absence.

David Thornton, LB, Tennessee Titans–Thornton, who once was an IDP star, is 31 years old and trying to recover from a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, his recovery isn’t going well and with Gerald McRath facing a four game suspension rookie Rennie Curran could start this season if he impresses in preseason games.

A.J. Edds, LB, Miami Dolphins–In many IDP rookie league drafts, Edds was worthy of a draft pick as one of the few rookie linebackers expected to receive playing time this season. Unfortunately, Edds season was cut short with a torn ACL. If you drafted Edds in a dynasty league you would be smart to drop him to open up a much more valuable roster spot.

Donald Butler, LB, San Diego Chargers–Third round pick Butler had a promising future for the Chargers before a torn achilles’ tendon ended his season. He was expected to see plenty of playing time as a rookie this season and replace Stephen Cooper in the starting lineup in 2011. Butler was the fourth linebacker taken in most IDP rookie drafts this offseason.

Sergio Kindle, LB, Baltimore Ravens–The Ravens second round pick had a horrific fall down a flight a stairs that resulted in a fractured skull. Needless to say, Kindle’s season is likely over after being projected as an edge rusher on passing downs and as Jarrett Johnson’s eventual replacement.

Atari Bigby, DB, Green Bay Packers–Bigby, who was already being pushed for the starting job by rookie Morgan Burnett, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle. Burnett looks to be the starting strong safety for the Packers this season.

Louis Delmas, DB, Detroit Lions–Delmas’ season could be ended prematurely should he reaggravate a groin injury that could require surgery. He’s a great IDP defensive back when healthy so draft accordingly.

Ed Reed, DB, Baltimore Ravens–Reed is no where close to playing football after offseason hip surgery. Tom Zbikowski is expected to start in Reed’s absence and could be a huge sleeper.

Marcus Spears, DE, Dallas Cowboys–Spears will miss 4-6 weeks due to a MCL sprain and possibly lose his starting job if his replacement Jason Hatcher impresses early in the season.

Osi Umenyiora, DE, New York Giants–Umenyiora has decided to ignore his doctor’s advice to have hip surgery. He’ll likely be playing in pain all season and could lose his starting job to Mathias Kiwanuka sooner than later.

Phillip Merling, DE, Miami Dolphins–Starting defensive end Merling will miss the entire season after tearing his achilles’s tendon. This opens the door for promising first round pick Jared Odrick to start immediately.

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FFWebMASTERS ANNUAL DRAFT–Round 6 Analysis

John Willette — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 02:33:48 +0000

This is the sixth installment of the Fantasy Football WebMasters annual draft. The FFWebMASTERS league is a 14-team league comprised of the top fantasy football experts in the business today.

The draft utilizes a serpentine draft order. We start 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1K-1DEF. The league utilizes basic scoring with 1 point for every 10 yards rush/rec, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 4 pts for a TD pass and 6 points for all other TDs. Team defense scores 1 point per sack-Interception-Fumble recovery, 6 points for TDs including special team TDs only. Follow our season at the FFWebMASTERS league site!

ROUND 6
71. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
72. Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens
73. Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
74. Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins
75. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
76. Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland Browns
77. Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts
78. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
79. Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
80. Marion Barber, RB, Dallas Cowboys
81. Devin Hester, WR, Chicago Bears
82. Steve Breaston, WR, Arizona Cardinals
83. Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego Chargers
84. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants

ANALYSIS: A couple of backup running backs come off the board this round in rookie Montario Hardesty and Ahmad Bradshaw. Four teams acquire their starting quarterbacks. Waiting this long for their starter is not without risk since all four play in run-heavy offenses. The receivers taken here are uninspiring. I do like the Malcom Floyd and the Santana Moss picks. Both are on teams with excellent quarterbacks and likely to pass a ton. Floyd’s value has since skyrocketed with the Chargers shutting down contract talks with starter Vincent Jackson. Hester and Garcon are wildcards since they’re not entrenched as starters.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: I’ll admit it, I was swinging for the fences with Hardesty. With only needing two starting running backs I decided to gamble on a rookie who could become the starter sooner than later. Should he lose the starting gig to Jerome Harrison he’s a shoe-in for redzone carries where he can use his size and power to ramble into the endzone. I regretted passing on Marion Barber, who went four picks later, so here’s hoping my gamble pays off!

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SPORTS GUT–Hardesty the latest in rookie injuries

John Willette — Sat, 31 Jul 2010 18:42:56 +0000

The NFL must have been passing out more than life skills at this year’s NFL rookie synposium. Within the last two days, two of this year’s top fantasy rookies have succomb to injury. On Friday, July 30, 2010, Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant suffered a high ankle sprain and could miss substantial time. On Saturday, July 31, 2010, it was reported that the Cleveland Browns’ second round pick, Montario Hardesty twisted his knee in precamp drills and could be out a couple of weeks. With Hardesty’s history of knee injuries it’s likely that the Browns will be in no rush to get him back on the field.

So how does Hardesty’s injury affect the fantasy values of the Brown’s top players? Incumbant starter Jerome Harrison looks to be the only player affected if Hardesty is out for any length of time. Harrison and Hardesty were neck and neck in the starting running back race before the injury. With Hardesty out, Harrison will have the opportunity to prove that the starting job is his to lose. As far as Hardesty’s fantasy value, he should still be selected where he normally would before the injury in all leagues.

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SPORTS GUT–Bryant’s 4-week recovery a bit optimistic

John Willette — Sat, 31 Jul 2010 16:18:48 +0000

News out of Dallas this week brought panic to the fantasy world. Dez Bryant, the Cowboys first round draft pick and owner Jerry Jones’ self proclaimed “superstar” suffered a high ankle sprain.

The Cowboys have publicly stated that Bryant will only miss 4-6 weeks. However, according to Sports Injury Bulletin, the average recovery time for a high ankle sprain is 3-4 months! In the best-case scenario, this would put Bryant back on the field in October and wipe out the first half of his season. I’m not saying he can’t be a fantasy factor this season. Just look at the 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree, who missed the first five games last season due to a hold out but still managed a productive year. However, unlike Crabtree, Bryant will be missing time due to an injury, which will not only severly limit him in practices but should he reaggravate the ankle he could miss the remainder of the season.

So how does Bryant’s injury affect the fantasy value of the Cowboys’ top players? Considering that Bryant is a rookie the only player affected will be Roy Williams who will have an opportunity to prolong the inevitable…his ultimate demotion. Bryant’s fantasy value however, will stay the same in all leagues. As a top draft pick the Cowboys selected him to be a starting receiver. That isn’t likley to change whether he is on the field or not. Even if he misses the entire season, his potential as a top receiver in 2011 will still make him worth rostering.

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FFWebMASTERS ANNUAL DRAFT–Round 5 Analysis

John Willette — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 22:35:44 +0000

This is the fifth installment of the Fantasy Football WebMasters annual draft. The FFWebMASTERS league is a 14-team league comprised of the top fantasy football experts in the business today.

The draft utilizes a serpentine draft order. We start 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1K-1DEF. The league utilizes basic scoring with 1 point for every 10 yards rush/rec, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 4 pts for a TD pass and 6 points for all other TDs. Team defense scores 1 point per sack-Interception-Fumble recovery, 6 points for TDs including special team TDs only. Follow our season at the FFWebMASTERS league site!

ROUND 5
57. Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
58. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
59. Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins
60. Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders
61. Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
62. Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago Bears
63. Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
64. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
65. Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
66. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
67. Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
68. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
69. Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints
70. Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay Packers

ANALYSIS: Reinforcing the fact that this league values wide receivers, five of them come off the board. None of the receivers are sure bets for consistent weekly fantasy production due to their situations. Knox, Maclin, Meachem and Driver all have to compete with better pass catching options on their own teams while Britt is stuck on a team where passing the ball is an after thought. Meachem and Driver were very risky picks in the fourth since both of them are still slowed by injuries. A run on the top tight ends ensues as Finley, Celek and Witten are all selected. Fanball.com believes that Finley’s 2009 season was no fluke as they make him the fourth tight end selected in the draft. Despite the Eagles change in quarterbacks, Fantasy Nuthouse believes that Celek will again be among the top tight ends in the league. We also see top-talented quarterback Philip Rivers’ fantasy value plummet due to Vincent Jackson’s three game suspension and possible year long hold-out.

FANTASY NUTHOUSE: In this league, every position matters. With the league’s emphasis on touchdowns and no points per reception, I targeted a tight end that not only racks up receiving yards but is also their team’s top redzone threat. Despite the loss of Donovan McNabb, I believe that Celek will be catching more passes and touchdowns with the inexperienced Kevin Kolb leading the Eagles passing attack.

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